CMCnotes

Stock Analysis and Forecasting
Dan Pickett

Stock Analysis and Forecasting

Training session recap

A video of the latest training session is here and slides are attached.

During the session we reviewed where you can find information in Fqactset and elsewhere to help you understand how a company operates and evaluate the comeptitive landscape and trends in company financial reports.

We then discussed techniques professionals use to efficiently research companies effectively filtering through the noise to identify key drivers of the stocks.

We also discussed how examining the distribution of expectations for the key drivers can supplement our research and help more clearly define the key tension points for a stock, i.e. the issues where bulls and bears disagree. By focusing our analysis and field research on these tension points, we can position ourselves to develop a view on the stock, effectively aligning with the optimistic or pessimistic case for the stock.

Finally, we discussed how our views are translated into financial forecasts that are, relative to consensus forecasts, directionally consistent with how we expect the tension points to resolve.  

To supplement your own research, we created folders here for each of the stock teams containing recent Wall Street research notes and at least one detailed financial models. These should help you estimate market expectations, at least as reflected in sell-side views. There is also a template you can use to start to put together your presentations for the April 21 Associate Member Pitch Day. Zoom, Microsoft-Teams, or Googlehangouts are relatively easy apps you can use to connect and work on the presentations together.

Don’t hesitate to reach out to Dan or the Portfolio Analyst working with your team if you have any questions.

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